Slow Growth Forecasted for Liberty County EDITORIAL

LIBERTY, January 5, 2006 - Liberty County Commissioner Todd Fontenot released the findings of the H-GAC’s, (Houston Galveston Area Council) Regional Growth Forecast that shows the anticipated future distribution of population and employment in the eight county Houston metropolitan area.

According to Fontenot the data is made up of baseline data modeling tools in developing forecasts and are extensively reviewed by H-GAC’s Forecast Advisory Committee with representatives from throughout the region with expertise in analyzing demographic, economic and development trends.

The next phase in the forecast is to provide local officials and the public with the opportunity for formal review and comment on the data.

According to sources the forecasted data relies on documented historical growth patterns as well as other factors in predicting future growth.

A review of the data indicates that what growth there will be in Liberty County over the next 30 years will occur in Liberty County’s three major cities of Liberty, Dayton and Cleveland.

City	Household Population 2005	Household Population 2035	Population 30 year change	Households 30 year change	Jobs 2005	Jobs 20035	Jobs 30 year change
Cleveland	6,900	10,100	3,200	1,300	5,300	7,000	1,700
Dayton	4,700	6,800	2,100	900	3,500	4,200	700
Liberty	8,900	12,200	3,300	1,600	7,600	11,200	3,600

In 30 years time Liberty is predicted to gain 3,600 jobs, an average of 120 jobs per year, and have an increase in population of 3,300 people, an average of 110 people per year.

Cleveland and Dayton are predicted to have slower growth rates in both job creation and population as can be seen in the table above.

In 2005 i-dineout.com interviewed City of Liberty Economic Development Director, Jerry Grooms who predicted that near term business growth in Liberty would come through the addition of retail and service sector businesses. One can only conclude that the modest job growth in the City of Liberty predicted by the H-GAC forecasts will be largely in lower paying retail and service sector jobs and not higher skilled manufacturing jobs in the near term.

There will most certainly be some additional job growth in Government Sector employment that already accounts for approximately 27% of the workforce in the county, far more than in adjacent counties, with the resulting high taxes that accompany it.

The forecast of H-GAC, if it can be believed, predicts little improvement in the economic conditions in Liberty. With only such modest gains in population and job creation, there is little additional increase in the market for the goods and services offered by businesses and everyday the taxes and fixed overhead costs of those businesses continue to increase.

If the H-GAC study is correct then we must look for new and more creative solutions in order for our community to prosper. The status quo will no longer suffice.

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